Central
banks have come a long way from being an issuer of currencies few hundred years
ago to playing significant roles in maintaining overall financial stability and
fostering growth in today's economies. This natural evolution over the last few
hundred years has seen central banks assuming more responsibilities and the
purview of activities under them has also expanded. In a recent interview with
the newly appointed governor of the Central Bank of India (Reserve Bank of
India), Mr. Raghuram Rajan said that the primary objective of the central bank
is to ensure price stability and financial stability. He went on to add that
with the price stability in place, the stage will be set for the growth of an
economy as well. While economists having pro-growth stance may term this
objective hawkish, there is still a point to be noted here. That is; central
banks of emerging economies as well as advanced economies of the world state
the goals of financial stability in their objectives. The tectonic shifts in
the financial economics around the world in the last few decades has
increasingly made economists believe that the stability of financial system
cannot be taken for granted and the world at large itself may become a victim
of its own deviant actions. The overheating and consequently the
bursting of real-estate based assets bubble in Japan in 1980s to the recent
subprime crisis in United States in the second half of 2000 is a testimony to
the fact that aftermath of such crisis is huge in this age of interdependent
economies.
At
this point, it is important to pause for a moment and understand the reasons
for such crisis in order to appreciate the need for financial stability in
today's economies. At a very big picture level, the economy as a whole has
financial institutions (investment banks, pension funds, insurance companies to
name a few), financial intermediaries like commercial banks, financial markets
(that includes capital market, money market), payment and settlement systems,
the real economy and the linkage between the real sector and the financial
system. This linkage results in spillover from one system to another in the
event of overheating of any system.
Few
of the reasons as per the literature available on the websites in research section of central banks are as follows:
(a)
The failure to mitigate the risks at the level of individual financial
institutions can result in destabilizing the entire financial system as a
whole. Institutions taking risky positions and then simultaneously unwinding
their positions in the market cause prices to fluctuate and result in more than
expected expansion or contraction of credit. The US subprime crisis of 2008 was
a result of excessive exuberance to own houses that were
available during the regimes of low interest rates for a long period of time,
investment banks riding on the huge leverage to make money on
mortgage backed securities and insurance companies writing
credit default swaps for subprime credit. The bubble was in the making and as it was imminent, the
bursting of bubble resulted in market transactions getting contracted. Some
institutions suffered greater than expected losses and asset prices dropped
drastically resulting in the deterioration of real economy thereby aggravating
the instability in the financial system as well. There is a similar account of
the crisis in Japan in the decade of 1980s. Japan also witnessed an
unprecedented increase in the transactions in the property market. It was
because of elevated expectations of returns on the part of investors. The
bubble was being formed on the expectations of the market that the regime of
low interest rates will continue for substantially long period to come. This
resulted in the prices overshooting in both residential and commercial estates
so much that the central business districts of Tokyo had witnessed huge real
estate bubbles and the consequent and inevitable collapse as well. The
governments around the world then face the aftermath of such crisis in the form
of bail-outs. The new regulations are formed to arrest such events in future;
one of the examples is the passing of Dodd-Frank regulations passed after the crisis of 2008.
(b)
The second reason of the systemic risks in the financial system is the
emergence of a new class of financial products like derivatives and a new class
of investors known as hedge funds. The point here is that financial innovation
results in challenging the conventional financial products in terms of returns;
but thereby introducing the risk of varying degrees in the financial system.
The above arguments reason the fact that financial stability is indeed an important objective to be pursued by central banks and the lack (or failure) of financial stability can have repercussions in an economy.
The above arguments reason the fact that financial stability is indeed an important objective to be pursued by central banks and the lack (or failure) of financial stability can have repercussions in an economy.
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